Here are some of my impressions of the last game.
1. It was nerve wracking. I know this is all fantasy type stuff and doesn't impact our real lives but it takes a lot to consider all the factors and make the decisions that give you the best chance. We were intense from the first batter to the last. I made lots of choices and some mistakes but felt like I wouldn't have changed many of them. Sometimes you have to just do your best and then let the unpredictable dice rolls rule your game.
2. My pitching was a concern in Game 7 as Salazar (4.25 ERA) was my only option because of how the 7 game series with VER impacted my rotation. I made the decision in advance of Game 7 that Salazar would face 9 batters (league minimum unless you give up 3 runs) and then I would go with Betances. This worked well except Tom got his runs by getting rolls on the hitters cards; there were no errors or hits off pitchers in any of his 4 runs this game which means when they had the chance my relievers did come through. Due to bullpen depth, I replaced Betances when he got tired and Giles, Chapman and Fiers did well except for the lone run in the 10th off the batters cards. In fact, over the entire game, SBN got 1 hit against my pitchers on the pitcher's cards and that was erased on the failed bunt attempt in the 8th.
3. Tom did something similar, which I anticipated, by bringing in Sanchez to start the 3rd inning, after Strasburg faced 11 hitters. Sanchez pitched the remaining 7 2/3 innings which is allowed because there's no next game and you don't care about rest. He was dominant as usual. In the entire game, BEL got only 2 hits off SBN's pitcher's cards but since one was on the gb ss-x, I only view it as one hit. Pretty evenly matched pitching. (Although, McCutchen's walk in the 10th was off the pitcher's card.)
4. So in the bottom of the 10th down 4-3, McCutchen leads off with a walk and I had to pause the game and tell Tom I needed a minute to figure out what to do. I had to choose between hitting away or PH and bunting. Since Adams is a 6R and Sanchez has allowed some lefties to be successful, I hit away and hoped to avoid his large number of gb-a, probably a bad risk with several "B" bunters available. It was a single 1-9 but came up a 12 for the first out. Beltre was next and he grounded out moving McCutchen to 2nd. That brought up Holt who has been very average in the early part of the series going 1-10 in the first 3 games, he hit 9-16 in the last 4 games, but was my best option. My only lefty on the bench was Gennett who has not been good this season. I had Cervelli who is a 2R but Sanchez is just too strong vs RH batters. Lots of angst but I figured Holt was my best option. The odds of a HR on a 2-4 roll with a 1-15 split are approx. 1%
5. Some series stats...
The hitting star turns out a surprise, Brock Holt is the only person with 10 hits for a .385 series average.
McCutchen walked more times than he got hits (7 vs 6 in this series and 15 vs 12 for the entire playoffs) so his obp is high.
Ozuna was the worst full time performer, playing every game and going 1-22. And his poor bunt probably cost SBN the win in regulation in Game 7
SBN's best performer was Rizzo who was 9-28 in the WS
SBN had 66 base runners and BEL had 80
6. I know as happy as I was, Tom was that much bothered by these consecutive walkoffs. It would drive me crazy too! You can't fault Tom, he made the best choices in these last two games and I just got lucky. An awful lot of luck involved but at least my team was one of the top ones in the league so it wasn't a total upset, however, the way it happened. The way I calculate the odds, the Murphy roll of 2-8 (doesnt matter what card comes up because it's at least a double scoring 2 runs for the win) plus a Holt 2-4 with a card between 1 and 15, is approx. .0003 or 3 times every 10,000 or so tries; as I said totally unexpected.
Has this ever happened in MLB?
For real life baseball comparisons, there have been three walkoff HRs to end a WS Game 6 by a team behind in the series like BEL was, Fisk in 1975, Puckett in 1991 and David Freeze in 2011. All of these came with the game tied.
There has never been a come from behind Game 7 walkoff in the WS. Mazeroski's HR vs. the Yankees in 1960 was with the score tied 9-9; There was the Bobby Thompson 3R HR in 1951 that ended the one game playoff that flipped a 4-2 game to 5-4 and that was with one out and Mays on deck;
So yes, the likelihood for one team to strike gold in consecutive games with walkoff come from behind HRs is unprecedented and is a very unlikely outcome.
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